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東北產區伴隨著潮糧順利渡過售賣期,所謂的賣糧壓力全麵緩解,在大中型貿易主體 、（文章來源：銀河期貨）貿易端建庫意願下滑,下遊流通有限,終端承接能力不強,南北港繼續倒掛,市場階段性未看到太強趨勢性。 據巴西農業部下屬的國家商品供應公司CONAB,截至03月24日,巴西一茬玉米收割率為42.8%,上周為37.0%,去年同期為41.9%。但飼料企業替代庫存較多,深加工慣性補庫為主,需求承接能力有限,主流企業大多維持按需采購的現象。當前的玉米現貨市場,伴隨著華北市場最後一批潮糧供應市場,國內玉米市場從東北產區開始逐步進入“幹糧貿易”階段。基層糧源持續減少,飼料企業建庫也將提上“日程”,疊加中間貿易環節開始啟動(整體貿易環節的庫存數量同比處於低位), 整體來看,雖然新季玉米存在一定豐產預期,其能夠給市場提供的內貿玉米較上年有所增長,但在下遊低庫存、中間貿易環節同比下降以及內貿替代品大幅削減的預期光算谷歌seo光算谷歌seo下(小麥飼用替代已經不具備性價比),玉米現貨市場在從潮糧市場轉向幹糧市場,其價格將獲得一定支撐。需求沒有亮點的背景下玉米期貨市場震蕩偏弱,操作上反彈逢高拋空。 策略 總體上看,在全球供應寬鬆、玉米兩大主產區東北及華北節後價格走勢差異化比較明顯。低價超期稻穀或將重啟拍賣的傳聞發酵,造成部分貿易商囤糧情緒鬆動,走貨積極性轉強,市場上量有所增加。深加工企業以及本地貿易企業陸續入市後,市場價格整體呈現出穩步上行態勢。巴西二茬玉米播種率為96.8%,上周為92.3%,去年同期為91.1%。升溫等)導致被動售糧的情況光算谷歌seo將很難再規模性呈現,現貨市場也將不會再有所謂的“集中”賣壓,市場價格也就不會出現階段性的“崩塌”。光算谷歌seo產區走勢分化港口價格震蕩 。相比之下,山東市場節後到車量相對較高,整體收購價漲跌反複之後,終端收購均價基本與節前保持一致。但整體糧源供應相對充足。玉米維持震蕩偏弱格局 。華北後續還有新麥上市,仍壓製上方空間。需求端,目前下遊市場尤其是飼料加工企業低庫存顯現,伴隨著時間推移、進入自然幹糧的貿易光算谷歌se光算谷歌seoo市場之後,從供應角度來看,幹糧的壞糧風險大幅降低,因此天氣(包括雨雪、 |
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